Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Korona Kielce.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Pogon Szczecin, 30% draw, 25% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 4A. RiccioD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 23B. MendyD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 6J. BiegańskiM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 22Jordi SánchezF
- 3K. AcostaM
- 10F. ČuićF
- 30J. CzaplinskiM
- 98M. DabrowskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 47N. LawaM
- 17J. NsameF
- 75A. OssowskiD
- 29L. WillenD
- 1X. DziekońskiG
- 71W. DługoszD
- 23S. RubežićD
- 2A. MosórD
- 6M. PięczekD
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 30C. MenaM
- 32O. LingrM
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 14M. StępińskiF
- 8M. RemacleM
- 10NonoM
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 87R. MamlaG
- 86Simon GustafsonM
- 22M. FaßbenderF
- 7D. BłanikM
- 67N. BarczakD
- 99Daniel BakF
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
Korona Kielce
- W3-2Raków Częstochowa19 September 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
What these results say
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Pogon Szczecin had two goals or fewer.
- Korona Kielce conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Korona Kielce scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Korona Kielce.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 18 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
- 11 October 2026Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 16 March 2026Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 13 September 2025Korona Kielce 1–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 9 December 2024Korona Kielce 0–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 20 July 2024Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 17 March 2024Korona Kielce 2–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez81
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.