Dijon
vs
Metz
Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Dijon 4-2 Metz.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Dijon, 26% draw, 34% Metz — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dijon 1.70, Metz 1.54.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dijon vs Metz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dijon at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dijon vs Metz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16P. DelecroixG
- 7B. HamadaD
- 23L. LacroixD
- 5Q. BernardD
- 75Boubacar DialloD
- 8P. BellonM
- 14J. MariéM
- 20H. Vargas-RíosM
- 17A. LembezatM
- 11Júlio TavaresF
- 90A. LagoF
- 21Samy Olivier ChouchaneM
- 6W. DioufD
- 93I. BouleghchaD
- 10Y. BarkaF
- 9T. DongF
- 46Ilan Marie-RoseG
- 29A. NtamackF
- 18B. NdeziM
- 32Luis PuleriD
- 1J. FischerG
- 2M. ColinD
- 42C. DevenishD
- 5J. RuizD
- 70B. SarrM
- 12A. TouréM
- 18B. MunongoM
- 8J. DeminguetM
- 3F. MiguelM
- 9G. AbuashviliF
- 11P. FallF
- 61P. SyG
- 88A. Agne BaF
- 19M. Bokele MputuF
- 30T. Dos SantosD
- 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
- 4U. MboulaD
- 98I. MohamedD
- 7Ibou SanéF
- 39B. SongD
Form going into Dijon vs Metz
Dijon
- W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
- W3-2Laval11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne4 September 2026
- L2-3Saint Etienne31 August 2026
Metz
- D2-2Saint Etienne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
What these results say
- Dijon scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dijon conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Dijon.
- Metz conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Metz failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Metz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dijon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 10 | Metz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dijon vs Metz
- 12 October 2026Dijon 4–2 MetzLigue 2
- 18 February 2023Dijon 0–0 MetzLigue 2
- 27 August 2022Metz 1–2 DijonLigue 2
- 2 May 2021Dijon 1–5 MetzLigue 1
- 8 November 2020Metz 1–1 DijonLigue 1
- 7 August 2020Dijon 1–2 MetzFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Dijon and Metz
Dijon
GoalsAssists
- Júlio Tavares41
- Samy Olivier Chouchane30
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall70
- J. Deminguet23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.70 goals for Dijon and 1.54 for Metz; the game produced 4 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: H. Vargas Ríos 19' (Dijon), Ange Lago 24' (Dijon), Júlio Tavares 32' (Dijon), Pape Moussa Fall 44' (Metz), Quentin Bernard 69' (Dijon), Pape Moussa Fall 88' (Metz).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Dijon against 1.54 for Metz. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.35 for Metz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.