Guingamp
vs
PAU
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Guingamp 2–1 PAU
The model makes it 40% Guingamp, 27% draw, 33% PAU — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guingamp 1.60, PAU 1.38.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Guingamp are 11th on 8 points from 8 games; PAU are 8th on 11 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Guingamp have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Nancy.
- PAU have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Laval.
- Last 6 meetings: Guingamp 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended PAU 2–1 Guingamp.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Guingamp vs PAU
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guingamp at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guingamp vs PAU
Guingamp
- L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026
- L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
- W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
- D3-3Nantes29 August 2026
PAU
- W3-2Laval9 October 2026
- W2-0Dunkerque18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
What these results say
- Guingamp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Guingamp
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
PAU
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Guingamp vs PAU
- 17 April 2026PAU 2–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 8 November 2025Guingamp 2–2 PAULigue 2
- 10 May 2025PAU 1–3 GuingampLigue 2
- 18 October 2024Guingamp 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 27 April 2024PAU 1–2 GuingampLigue 2
- 26 August 2023Guingamp 4–0 PAULigue 2
Leading scorers: Guingamp and PAU
Guingamp
GoalsAssists
- B. Bokangu40
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guingamp carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.37 for PAU. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Guingamp and 1.38 for PAU. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guingamp rate 0.61 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAU rate 0.67 and 1.77.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour PAU, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guingamp a 0.1% chance of the title and PAU 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guingamp the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Guingamp against 1.38 for PAU. Guingamp's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.77 for PAU.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Guingamp at home · PAU away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Guingamp 8, PAU 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Guingamp
- at Clermont Foot23 Oct · Ligue 2win 30%
- vs Saint Etienne31 Oct · Ligue 2win 28%
- at Dunkerque6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- vs Rodez20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Grenoble4 Dec · Ligue 2win 31%
PAU
- vs Grenoble23 Oct · Ligue 2win 42%
- at Metz30 Oct · Ligue 2win 22%
- vs Nantes6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- at RED Star FC 9320 Nov · Ligue 2win 25%
- at Boulogne4 Dec · Ligue 2win 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.