Reims
vs
Dijon
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Reims 2–1 Dijon
The model makes it 49% Reims, 24% draw, 27% Dijon — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Reims 2.02, Dijon 1.37.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Reims are 4th on 14 points from 8 games; Dijon are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Nantes.
- Dijon are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Metz.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2021, ended Dijon 0–1 Reims.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Reims vs Dijon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Reims at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Reims vs Dijon
Reims
- D0-0away to Nantes10 October 2026
- D1-1Montpellier18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Nancy11 September 2026
- D2-2Guingamp5 September 2026
- W4-1away to RED Star FC 9329 August 2026
Dijon
- W4-2Metz12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
- W3-2Laval11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne4 September 2026
- L2-3Saint Etienne31 August 2026
What these results say
- Reims went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Reims scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Reims conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dijon.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Reims | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Dijon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Reims
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
Dijon
Chance to finish in the top four · 30% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Reims vs Dijon
- 21 March 2021Dijon 0–1 ReimsLigue 1
- 6 January 2021Reims 0–0 DijonLigue 1
- 28 September 2019Reims 1–2 DijonLigue 1
- 9 March 2019Dijon 1–1 ReimsLigue 1
- 22 September 2018Reims 0–0 DijonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Reims and Dijon
Reims
GoalsAssists
- Y. Fofana60
- Y. El Kachati21
Dijon
GoalsAssists
- Júlio Tavares41
- Samy Olivier Chouchane30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Reims carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.52 for Dijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Reims and 1.37 for Dijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Reims rate 0.81 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dijon rate 0.85 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Reims a 19.6% chance of the title and Dijon 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Reims the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Reims against 1.37 for Dijon. Reims's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.69 for Dijon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Reims at home · Dijon away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ReimsDijon
Reims are 4th after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Dijon are 7th after 8 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Reims 8, Dijon 8.
Reims score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Dijon have let in 0 there.
Dijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Reims have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Reims
- at Boulogne26 Oct · Ligue 2win 44%
- vs Sochaux31 Oct · Ligue 2win 49%
- at Grenoble6 Nov · Ligue 2win 44%
- vs Saint Etienne20 Nov · Ligue 2win 41%
- at Rodez4 Dec · Ligue 2win 41%
Dijon
- vs Rodez24 Oct · Ligue 2win 49%
- at Grenoble30 Oct · Ligue 2win 40%
- vs RED Star FC 936 Nov · Ligue 2win 44%
- at Nancy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 38%
- vs Sochaux4 Dec · Ligue 2win 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.