Widzew Łódź
vs
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Widzew Łódź 1–0 Wisla Krakow
The model makes it 38% Widzew Łódź, 28% draw, 34% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.38, Wisla Krakow 1.27.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Widzew Łódź are 13th on 9 points from 10 games; Wisla Krakow are 6th on 17 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Widzew Łódź have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Piast Gliwice.
- Wisla Krakow have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Legia Warszawa.
- Last 2 meetings: Wisla Krakow 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2024, ended Wisla Krakow 2–1 Widzew Łódź.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Widzew Łódź at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
Widzew Łódź
- L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026
- D2-2Wieczysta Kraków18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa13 September 2026
- D0-0Radomiak Radom5 September 2026
- L2-3Lech Poznan30 August 2026
Wisla Krakow
- L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
What these results say
- Widzew Łódź did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wisla Krakow had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Widzew Łódź
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Wisla Krakow
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
- 28 February 2024Wisla Krakow 2–1 Widzew ŁódźCup
- 2 December 2021Widzew Łódź 1–3 Wisla KrakowCup
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Widzew Łódź carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.69 for Wisla Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.27 for Wisla Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Widzew Łódź rate 0.70 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Krakow rate 0.87 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wisla Krakow, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Widzew Łódź a 0% chance of the title and Wisla Krakow 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Widzew Łódź the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Widzew Łódź against 1.27 for Wisla Krakow. Widzew Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.19 for Wisla Krakow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Widzew Łódź at home · Wisla Krakow away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Widzew ŁódźWisla Krakow
Widzew Łódź are 13th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 7th and 13th so far); Wisla Krakow are 5th after 10 (between 2nd and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Widzew Łódź 10, Wisla Krakow 10.
Wisla Krakow score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Widzew Łódź have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Widzew Łódź
- vs Gornik Zabrze23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at GKS Katowice31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 22%
- vs Pogon Szczecin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Raków Częstochowa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 41%
Wisla Krakow
- vs Raków Częstochowa24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 52%
- at Lech Poznan31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 19%
- vs Cracovia Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 51%
- at Radomiak Radom21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 44%
- vs Motor Lublin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.