GKS Katowice
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: GKS Katowice 2–1 Pogon Szczecin
The model makes it 44% GKS Katowice, 27% draw, 29% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.59, Pogon Szczecin 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- GKS Katowice are 5th on 18 points from 10 games; Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 18 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- GKS Katowice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Korona Kielce.
- Last 4 meetings: GKS Katowice 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Pogon Szczecin 1–1 GKS Katowice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026
- W4-1away to Raków Częstochowa9 October 2026
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
What these results say
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pogon Szczecin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 18 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
GKS Katowice
Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today
Pogon Szczecin
Chance to finish in the top four · 41% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
- 23 May 2026Pogon Szczecin 1–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 29 November 2025GKS Katowice 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 6 April 2025Pogon Szczecin 4–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 27 September 2024GKS Katowice 3–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Pogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
GKS Katowice carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.76 for Pogon Szczecin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for GKS Katowice and 1.19 for Pogon Szczecin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GKS Katowice rate 1.00 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogon Szczecin rate 0.79 and 0.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogon Szczecin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives GKS Katowice a 5.4% chance of the title and Pogon Szczecin 3.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.19 for Pogon Szczecin. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 1/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/0.96 for Pogon Szczecin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
GKS Katowice at home · Pogon Szczecin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GKS KatowicePogon Szczecin
GKS Katowice are 5th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 5th and 13th so far); Pogon Szczecin are 4th after 9 (between 2nd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: GKS Katowice 10, Pogon Szczecin 9.
GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Pogon Szczecin have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
GKS Katowice
- at Korona Kielce24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Górnik Łęczna27 Oct · Cupwin 65%
- vs Widzew Łódź31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 53%
- at Jagiellonia7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- vs Lech Poznan21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
Pogon Szczecin
- vs Radomiak Radom24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 61%
- at Raków Częstochowa31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- at Widzew Łódź7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- vs Slask Wroclaw21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Lech Poznan28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.