Cracovia Krakow
vs
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Legia Warszawa
The model makes it 27% Cracovia Krakow, 29% draw, 44% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 1.01, Legia Warszawa 1.43.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Legia Warszawa are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cracovia Krakow are 11th on 11 points from 10 games; Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 22 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Cracovia Krakow have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Zaglebie Lubin.
- Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Wisla Krakow.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Legia Warszawa 1–0 Cracovia Krakow.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
Cracovia Krakow
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
- L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026
Legia Warszawa
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
- D1-1Slask Wroclaw28 August 2026
What these results say
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cracovia Krakow
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Legia Warszawa
Chance to finish in the top four · 76% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
- 8 March 2026Legia Warszawa 1–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 31 August 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 18 May 2025Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 23 November 2024Legia Warszawa 3–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 20 December 2023Cracovia Krakow 2–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 17 December 2023Legia Warszawa 2–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić52
Legia Warszawa
GoalsAssists
- R. Augustyniak42
- R. Adamski40
- Ł. Zjawiński40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cracovia Krakow carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.85 for Legia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.43 for Legia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cracovia Krakow rate 0.67 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Legia Warszawa rate 0.90 and 0.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cracovia Krakow a 0% chance of the title and Legia Warszawa 16%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 1.43 for Legia Warszawa. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.91 for Legia Warszawa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cracovia Krakow at home · Legia Warszawa away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Cracovia KrakowLegia Warszawa
Cracovia Krakow are 11th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 4th and 15th so far); Legia Warszawa are 3rd after 10 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Cracovia Krakow 10, Legia Warszawa 10.
Legia Warszawa score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Cracovia Krakow have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cracovia Krakow
- at Piast Gliwice24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Motor Lublin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Wisla Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Jagiellonia21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 37%
- at Korona Kielce28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 26%
Legia Warszawa
- vs Lech Poznan25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Gornik Zabrze31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Raków Częstochowa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 59%
- at Wisla Plock21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 47%
- vs Wieczysta Kraków28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.