Strasbourg
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint Germain
The model makes it 24% Strasbourg, 23% draw, 53% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.39, Paris Saint Germain 2.31.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Paris Saint Germain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Strasbourg are 11th on 7 points from 6 games; Paris Saint Germain are 6th on 11 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Strasbourg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Nice.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Le Mans.
- Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint Germain.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris Saint Germain at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
- W2-1Lens29 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Marseille20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
What these results say
- Strasbourg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Strasbourg.
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg
- I. Doukoureinactive
- J. Panichelliknee injury
- M. Godomuscle injury
- S. NanasiinjuryDoubtful
Paris Saint Germain
- A. Longoniinjury
- S. Mayulugroin injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Strasbourg
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
Paris Saint Germain
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 48% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
- 1 February 2026Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 17 October 2025Paris Saint Germain 3–3 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 3 May 2025Strasbourg 2–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 19 October 2024Paris Saint Germain 4–2 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 2 February 2024Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 21 October 2023Paris Saint Germain 3–0 StrasbourgLigue 1
Leading scorers: Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine21
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres40
- Marquinhos30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Strasbourg carry a model rating of 6.84 against 7.18 for Paris Saint Germain. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Strasbourg and 2.31 for Paris Saint Germain. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Strasbourg rate 1.13 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paris Saint Germain rate 1.42 and 0.73.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Strasbourg a 0.8% chance of the title and Paris Saint Germain 47.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Strasbourg against 2.31 for Paris Saint Germain. Strasbourg's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.42/0.73 for Paris Saint Germain.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Strasbourg at home · Paris Saint Germain away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
Strasbourg are 11th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 4th and 18th so far); Paris Saint Germain are 5th after 6 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Strasbourg 6, Paris Saint Germain 6.
Paris Saint Germain score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Strasbourg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Strasbourg
- at Rennes25 Oct · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs Auxerre1 Nov · Ligue 1win 55%
- at Toulouse6 Nov · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs Stade Brestois 2921 Nov · Ligue 1win 48%
- at Le Havre28 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
Paris Saint Germain
- vs Barcelona20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 39%
- vs Lyon25 Oct · Ligue 1win 56%
- at Le Havre30 Oct · Ligue 1win 57%
- at Villarreal3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 38%
- vs Estac Troyes7 Nov · Ligue 1win 82%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.