Paris FC
vs
Rennes
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Paris FC 2–1 Rennes
The model makes it 53% Paris FC, 24% draw, 23% Rennes — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Paris FC 2.08, Rennes 1.23.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Paris FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Paris FC are 5th on 11 points from 6 games; Rennes are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Lorient.
- Rennes have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Auxerre.
- Last 2 meetings: Rennes 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Rennes 2–1 Paris FC.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paris FC vs Rennes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris FC at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Paris FC vs Rennes
Paris FC
- L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg19 September 2026
- D0-0Lyon12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
Rennes
- W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Lyon19 September 2026
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
What these results say
- Rennes won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rennes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Paris FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 50% today
Rennes
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Rennes
- 10 May 2026Rennes 2–1 Paris FCLigue 1
- 7 November 2025Paris FC 0–1 RennesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris FC and Rennes
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko41
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul40
- A. Thomasson22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Paris FC carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.87 for Rennes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Paris FC and 1.23 for Rennes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris FC rate 1.09 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rennes rate 1.15 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rennes, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paris FC a 7.6% chance of the title and Rennes 3.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Paris FC against 1.23 for Rennes. Paris FC's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/1.13 for Rennes.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Paris FC at home · Rennes away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Paris FCRennes
Paris FC are 4th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Rennes are 3rd after 6 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Paris FC 6, Rennes 6.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Paris FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Paris FC
- at Lens24 Oct · Ligue 1win 35%
- vs Monaco1 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- at Auxerre7 Nov · Ligue 1win 51%
- vs Angers22 Nov · Ligue 1win 65%
- at Stade Brestois 2927 Nov · Ligue 1win 45%
Rennes
- at Juventus22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 16%
- vs Strasbourg25 Oct · Ligue 1win 47%
- at Nice31 Oct · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.