Lille
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lille 2–0 Stade Brestois 29
The model makes it 57% Lille, 24% draw, 19% Stade Brestois 29 — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Lille 1.98, Stade Brestois 29 0.92.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Lille: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lille are 2nd on 13 points from 6 games; Stade Brestois 29 are 7th on 8 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Le Havre.
- Stade Brestois 29 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Angers.
- Last 6 meetings: Lille 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
Lille
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice20 September 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
Stade Brestois 29
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Auxerre20 September 2026
- L0-1Paris Saint Germain13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Le Havre5 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Stade Brestois 29 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury
- T. Santosknee injury
- A. UedainjuryDoubtful
Stade Brestois 29
- B. Chardonnetcalf injury
- G. Versinileg injury
- R. Le Guenbroken leg
- M. BaldeinjuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lille
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
Stade Brestois 29
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
- 14 February 2026Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 17 August 2025Stade Brestois 29 3–3 LilleLigue 1
- 10 May 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–0 LilleLigue 1
- 6 December 2024Lille 3–1 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 17 March 2024Stade Brestois 29 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- 22 October 2023Lille 1–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
Leading scorers: Lille and Stade Brestois 29
Lille
GoalsAssists
- D. Bakwa21
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- K. Doumbia41
- P. Mboup21
- L. Ajorque21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lille carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.77 for Stade Brestois 29. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Lille and 0.92 for Stade Brestois 29. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lille rate 1.02 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Brestois 29 rate 0.98 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lille a 13.9% chance of the title and Stade Brestois 29 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Lille against 0.92 for Stade Brestois 29. Lille's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.15 for Stade Brestois 29.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lille at home · Stade Brestois 29 away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LilleStade Brestois 29
Lille are 1st after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Stade Brestois 29 are 6th after 6 (between 4th and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lille 6, Stade Brestois 29 6.
Stade Brestois 29 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lille
- vs Galatasaray21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 53%
- at Monaco25 Oct · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs Lens30 Oct · Ligue 1win 48%
- at Bodo/Glimt3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- at Rennes8 Nov · Ligue 1win 41%
Stade Brestois 29
- vs Nice23 Oct · Ligue 1win 48%
- at Lorient31 Oct · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs Lyon8 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at Strasbourg21 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs Paris FC27 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.