Lorient
vs
Monaco
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lorient 1–2 Monaco
The model makes it 31% Lorient, 27% draw, 42% Monaco — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lorient 1.28, Monaco 1.57.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Monaco: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lorient are 8th on 8 points from 6 games; Monaco are top on 14 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Lorient have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Paris FC.
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Toulouse.
- Last 6 meetings: Lorient 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 16 January 2026, ended Monaco 1–3 Lorient.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lorient vs Monaco
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lorient vs Monaco
Lorient
- W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Le Mans19 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
Monaco
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lorient scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lorient
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Monaco
Chance to finish in the top four · 68% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Monaco
- 16 January 2026Monaco 1–3 LorientLigue 1
- 27 September 2025Lorient 3–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 17 March 2024Monaco 2–2 LorientLigue 1
- 17 September 2023Lorient 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
- 16 April 2023Monaco 3–1 LorientLigue 1
- 11 January 2023Lorient 2–2 MonacoLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lorient and Monaco
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lorient carry a model rating of 6.79 against 7 for Monaco. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Lorient and 1.57 for Monaco. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lorient rate 0.84 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monaco rate 1.21 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lorient a 0.1% chance of the title and Monaco 18%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Lorient against 1.57 for Monaco. Lorient's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.9 for Monaco.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lorient at home · Monaco away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LorientMonaco
Lorient are 8th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Monaco are 1st after 6 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lorient 6, Monaco 6.
Monaco score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Lorient have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lorient
- at Angers25 Oct · Ligue 1win 41%
- vs Stade Brestois 2931 Oct · Ligue 1win 43%
- at Le Havre8 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs Rennes22 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Paris Saint Germain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 15%
Monaco
- vs SC Freiburg22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
- vs Lille25 Oct · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Paris FC1 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs FC Nordsjaelland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
- at Le Mans8 Nov · Ligue 1win 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.