Groningen
vs
Ajax
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Groningen 1–2 Ajax
The model makes it 32% Groningen, 26% draw, 42% Ajax — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Groningen 1.41, Ajax 1.70.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Ajax: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Groningen are 6th on 14 points from 8 games; Ajax are 5th on 15 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Groningen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to Excelsior.
- Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to NEC Nijmegen.
- Last 6 meetings: Ajax 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended Ajax 2–0 Groningen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Groningen vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Groningen vs Ajax
Groningen
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
Ajax
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
What these results say
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajax conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ajax.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Groningen vs Ajax
Groningen
- E. van der Laaninjury
- M. Jengleg injury
- T. Hernesinjury
- T. Mercerainjury
Ajax
- A. Gaaeiinjury
- Caio Henriquethigh injury
- D. Blindback injury
- K. Dolbergknee injury
- S. Berghuisinjury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Groningen
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Ajax
Chance to finish in the top four · 66% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Ajax
- 21 May 2026Ajax 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 7 March 2026Groningen 3–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 2 December 2025Ajax 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 14 May 2025Groningen 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 6 October 2024Ajax 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 16 May 2023Groningen 2–3 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Ajax
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- T. van Bergen52
- B. Willumsson50
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare41
- J. Brandt40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Groningen carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.99 for Ajax. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Groningen and 1.70 for Ajax. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Groningen rate 0.94 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ajax rate 1.09 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Groningen a 0.3% chance of the title and Ajax 5.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Groningen against 1.70 for Ajax. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.82 for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Groningen at home · Ajax away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GroningenAjax
Groningen are 6th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Ajax are 5th after 8 (between 3rd and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Groningen 8, Ajax 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Groningen
- at NEC Nijmegen25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs Emmen29 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 73%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 60%
- at AZ Alkmaar8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Heerenveen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 47%
Ajax
- vs Atalanta22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 42%
- at Sparta Rotterdam25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 58%
- vs AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 47%
- at FC Midtjylland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 33%
- at Twente8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.