Cambuur
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Cambuur 1–2 AZ Alkmaar
The model makes it 22% Cambuur, 23% draw, 55% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.55, 4.35 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Cambuur 1.19, AZ Alkmaar 2.16.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: AZ Alkmaar are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Cambuur are 12th on 8 points from 8 games; AZ Alkmaar are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Cambuur are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to PEC Zwolle.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Feyenoord.
- Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2023, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Cambuur.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Cambuur
- W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026
- D1-1away to ADO Den Haag19 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
- W1-0Telstar20 September 2026
- D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
- W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
What these results say
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Cambuur
- D. Visserknee injury
- W. Asselmaninjury
- J. AmofainjuryDoubtful
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury
- K. Smitinjury
- S. Resinkknee injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cambuur
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
AZ Alkmaar
Chance to finish in the top four · 65% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
- 25 February 2023AZ Alkmaar 2–1 CambuurEredivisie
- 28 August 2022Cambuur 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 22 January 2022AZ Alkmaar 0–0 CambuurEredivisie
- 3 October 2021Cambuur 1–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 2 March 2017AZ Alkmaar 0–0 CambuurKNVB Beker
- 27 January 2016AZ Alkmaar 3–1 CambuurEredivisie
Leading scorers: Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui40
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- R. Daal40
- M. Meerdink32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cambuur carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.91 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Cambuur and 2.16 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cambuur rate 0.73 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 1.00 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cambuur a 0% chance of the title and AZ Alkmaar 6.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cambuur against 2.16 for AZ Alkmaar. Cambuur's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.89 for AZ Alkmaar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cambuur at home · AZ Alkmaar away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CambuurAZ Alkmaar
Cambuur are 12th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 12th and 18th so far); AZ Alkmaar are 3rd after 8 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Cambuur 8, AZ Alkmaar 8.
Cambuur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); AZ Alkmaar have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cambuur
- at Willem II24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 41%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- vs PSV Eindhoven8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 13%
- at Utrecht21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
AZ Alkmaar
- at Ararat-Armenia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 67%
- vs Twente25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 40%
- at Ajax31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 27%
- vs Juventus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
- vs Groningen8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.