ADO Den Haag
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: ADO Den Haag 1–3 PSV Eindhoven
The model makes it 13% ADO Den Haag, 17% draw, 70% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 7.69, 5.88 and 1.43. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.14, PSV Eindhoven 3.11.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: PSV Eindhoven are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ADO Den Haag are 17th on 3 points from 8 games; PSV Eindhoven are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- ADO Den Haag have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Telstar.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Heerenveen.
- Last 6 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 March 2023, ended PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den Haag.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 70% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Feyenoord30 August 2026
PSV Eindhoven
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
- L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
What these results say
- ADO Den Haag did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven won 4 of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag
- C. Peupionknee injury
- L. Reischlgroin injury
- M. Hokkesuspended (red card)
PSV Eindhoven
- A. Nagaloinjury
- A. Pleasurgery
- J. Schoutenknee injury
- K. Sildilliasurgery
- P. Wannerfoot injury
- R. Pepiinjury
- S. Lammerslacking match fitness
- S. Ouaissamuscle injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | +16 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ADO Den Haag
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
PSV Eindhoven
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 51% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
- 2 March 2023PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagKNVB Beker
- 13 February 2021ADO Den Haag 2–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 1 November 2020PSV Eindhoven 4–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 15 February 2020ADO Den Haag 0–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 11 August 2019PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 21 April 2019PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- G. Til50
- S. Mijnans41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.49 against 7.11 for PSV Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for ADO Den Haag and 3.11 for PSV Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADO Den Haag rate 0.69 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PSV Eindhoven rate 1.48 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ADO Den Haag a 0% chance of the title and PSV Eindhoven 51.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 3.11 for PSV Eindhoven. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.48/0.9 for PSV Eindhoven.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ADO Den Haag at home · PSV Eindhoven away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag are 17th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 15th and 18th so far); PSV Eindhoven are 1st after 8 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: ADO Den Haag 8, PSV Eindhoven 8.
ADO Den Haag score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); PSV Eindhoven have let in 1 there.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); ADO Den Haag have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ADO Den Haag
- vs Heerenveen24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 31%
- at PEC Zwolle1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 36%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at Ajax22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 10%
- vs Utrecht29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
PSV Eindhoven
- at FC Porto20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 19%
- vs Feyenoord25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 47%
- vs Willem II31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 88%
- vs Club Brugge KV4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- at Cambuur8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 70%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.