Emmen
vs
Almere City FC
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Emmen 1–2 Almere City FC
The model makes it 33% Emmen, 27% draw, 40% Almere City FC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Emmen 1.35, Almere City FC 1.55.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Almere City FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Emmen are 4th on 19 points from 10 games; Almere City FC are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Emmen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Dordrecht.
- Almere City FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to FC Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: Almere City FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Emmen 4–0 Almere City FC.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Emmen vs Almere City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almere City FC at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Emmen vs Almere City FC
Emmen
- W3-0away to Dordrecht9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
- L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026
Almere City FC
- W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026
- W1-0FC Volendam3 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dordrecht25 September 2026
- W1-0Heracles18 September 2026
- W4-0away to MVV11 September 2026
What these results say
- Emmen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Emmen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 19 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Emmen
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
Almere City FC
Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 30% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Emmen vs Almere City FC
- 1 August 2026Emmen 4–0 Almere City FCFriendlies Clubs
- 20 December 2025Almere City FC 4–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 17 August 2025Emmen 1–4 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 11 June 2023Emmen 1–2 Almere City FCEredivisie
- 6 June 2023Almere City FC 2–0 EmmenEredivisie
- 11 February 2022Almere City FC 0–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Emmen and Almere City FC
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- F. Quispel71
- J. Cooper63
Almere City FC
GoalsAssists
- F. Druijf63
- E. Poku43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Emmen carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.52 for Almere City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Emmen and 1.55 for Almere City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Emmen rate 0.62 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almere City FC rate 0.69 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Emmen a 1.4% chance of the title and Almere City FC 30%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Emmen against 1.55 for Almere City FC. Emmen's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.34 for Almere City FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Emmen at home · Almere City FC away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Emmen 10, Almere City FC 10.
Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Almere City FC have let in 2 there.
Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Emmen have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Emmen
- at Vitesse23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- at Groningen29 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 10%
- vs Den Bosch30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
- vs MVV8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- at NAC Breda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 19%
Almere City FC
- vs Roda23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
- at Telstar27 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 25%
- at Waalwijk30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- at Jong AZ6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- vs Helmond Sport14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.