Waalwijk
vs
FC Volendam
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Waalwijk 1–0 FC Volendam
The model makes it 37% Waalwijk, 28% draw, 35% FC Volendam — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Waalwijk 1.32, FC Volendam 1.27.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Waalwijk and FC Volendam are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Waalwijk are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; FC Volendam are 8th on 15 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Waalwijk are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Heracles.
- FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitesse.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Waalwijk 2–2 FC Volendam.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waalwijk at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
Waalwijk
- L0-3away to Heracles9 October 2026
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Jong Ajax11 September 2026
FC Volendam
- W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
- W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
- W2-0Den Bosch13 September 2026
What these results say
- Waalwijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Volendam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Waalwijk
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
FC Volendam
Chance to finish in the top four · 51% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
- 18 July 2026Waalwijk 2–2 FC VolendamFriendlies Clubs
- 7 April 2024FC Volendam 3–2 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 21 October 2023Waalwijk 2–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
- 5 May 2023Waalwijk 4–1 FC VolendamEredivisie
- 14 January 2023FC Volendam 2–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 22 February 2019Waalwijk 3–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Waalwijk and FC Volendam
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman102
- R. Niemeijer42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Waalwijk carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.52 for FC Volendam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Waalwijk and 1.27 for FC Volendam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Waalwijk rate 0.64 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Volendam rate 0.65 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Volendam, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waalwijk a 1.7% chance of the title and FC Volendam 10.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waalwijk the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Waalwijk against 1.27 for FC Volendam. Waalwijk's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.27 for FC Volendam.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Waalwijk at home · FC Volendam away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Waalwijk 10, FC Volendam 10.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Volendam have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Waalwijk
- at De Graafschap23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs Almere City FC30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at FC OSS6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- vs Den Bosch14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
- at FC Eindhoven21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
FC Volendam
- vs Jong Utrecht23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 59%
- at FC Eindhoven27 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 42%
- vs De Graafschap30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 58%
- at Helmond Sport6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Roda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.