VVV Venlo
vs
Jong AZ
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: VVV Venlo 2–1 Jong AZ
The model makes it 54% VVV Venlo, 24% draw, 22% Jong AZ — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VVV Venlo 2.09, Jong AZ 1.16.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to VVV Venlo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- VVV Venlo are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games; Jong AZ are 11th on 13 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- VVV Venlo have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Jong Ajax.
- Jong AZ have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Den Bosch.
- Last 6 meetings: Jong AZ 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 January 2026, ended VVV Venlo 1–3 Jong AZ.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VVV Venlo at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ
VVV Venlo
- W3-0away to Jong Ajax9 October 2026
- W2-0Roda4 October 2026
- L2-3away to FC Volendam26 September 2026
- W3-1away to Jong Utrecht18 September 2026
- W3-1FC OSS11 September 2026
Jong AZ
- L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026
- W4-1FC Volendam18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Jong PSV U2114 September 2026
- L2-3away to Heracles11 September 2026
- W6-3away to Dordrecht5 September 2026
What these results say
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VVV Venlo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo had three goals or more.
- Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong AZ scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Jong AZ.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 21 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
VVV Venlo
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
Jong AZ
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ
- 16 January 2026VVV Venlo 1–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
- 7 November 2025Jong AZ 0–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 3 February 2025Jong AZ 3–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 8 November 2024VVV Venlo 0–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
- 10 July 2024VVV Venlo 2–1 Jong AZFriendlies Clubs
- 22 April 2024Jong AZ 2–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Jong AZ
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- E. Zuliani41
Jong AZ
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VVV Venlo carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.3 for Jong AZ. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for VVV Venlo and 1.16 for Jong AZ. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VVV Venlo rate 0.67 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong AZ rate 0.63 and 1.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VVV Venlo a 16.6% chance of the title and Jong AZ 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 1.16 for Jong AZ. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.92 for Jong AZ.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VVV Venlo at home · Jong AZ away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: VVV Venlo 10, Jong AZ 10.
VVV Venlo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Jong AZ have let in 3 there.
Jong AZ score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
VVV Venlo
- at Dordrecht24 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
- vs Vitesse28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 48%
- at MVV31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
- vs Jong PSV U216 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
- vs FC Eindhoven14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
Jong AZ
- vs Helmond Sport23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at Roda30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs Almere City FC6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at Vitesse20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
- at Jong Ajax23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.