Spartak Trnava
vs
Slovan Bratislava
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Spartak Trnava 2–1 Slovan Bratislava
The model makes it 41% Spartak Trnava, 28% draw, 31% Slovan Bratislava — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Spartak Trnava 1.52, Slovan Bratislava 1.26.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Spartak Trnava are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games; Slovan Bratislava are 4th on 17 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- Spartak Trnava are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Podbrezová.
- Slovan Bratislava are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Skalica.
- Last 6 meetings: Slovan Bratislava 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Spartak Trnava 0–1 Slovan Bratislava.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Trnava at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava
Spartak Trnava
- W3-1away to Podbrezová11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunajska Streda20 September 2026
- W5-2FK Košice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ružomberok6 September 2026
- L1-3Žilina30 August 2026
Slovan Bratislava
- D1-1away to Skalica10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Komárno19 September 2026
- D3-3Žilina13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dunajska Streda5 September 2026
- L1-2Zemplín Michalovce30 August 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Trnava scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Trnava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Spartak Trnava.
- Slovan Bratislava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slovan Bratislava failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slovan Bratislava scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 21 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Spartak Trnava
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 12% today
Slovan Bratislava
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 8% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava
- 26 April 2026Spartak Trnava 0–1 Slovan BratislavaSuper Liga
- 11 April 2026Slovan Bratislava 2–2 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 28 February 2026Slovan Bratislava 4–0 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 18 February 2026Spartak Trnava 1–1 Slovan BratislavaCup
- 18 October 2025Spartak Trnava 0–2 Slovan BratislavaSuper Liga
- 19 April 2025Spartak Trnava 2–3 Slovan BratislavaSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Spartak Trnava carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.65 for Slovan Bratislava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Spartak Trnava and 1.26 for Slovan Bratislava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Trnava rate 0.77 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovan Bratislava rate 0.81 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spartak Trnava a 12.1% chance of the title and Slovan Bratislava 8.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Trnava the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Spartak Trnava against 1.26 for Slovan Bratislava. Spartak Trnava's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.21 for Slovan Bratislava.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Spartak Trnava at home · Slovan Bratislava away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Spartak Trnava 10, Slovan Bratislava 9.
Spartak Trnava score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Slovan Bratislava have let in 2 there.
Slovan Bratislava score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Spartak Trnava have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Spartak Trnava
- at Skalica24 Oct · Super Ligawin 49%
- vs Komárno31 Oct · Super Ligawin 62%
- at Dukla Banská Bystrica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 53%
- at Zemplín Michalovce21 Nov · Super Ligawin 45%
- vs AS Trencin28 Nov · Super Ligawin 71%
Slovan Bratislava
- at AS Roma20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 5%
- vs Dukla Banská Bystrica24 Oct · Super Ligawin 72%
- at AS Trencin28 Oct · Super Ligawin 57%
- at Podbrezová31 Oct · Super Ligawin 46%
- at Lask Linz3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.