Macva
vs
OFK Beograd
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Macva 1–2 OFK Beograd
The model makes it 35% Macva, 28% draw, 37% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Macva 1.34, OFK Beograd 1.41.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Macva and OFK Beograd are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Macva are 12th on 9 points from 11 games; OFK Beograd are 11th on 10 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Macva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Cukaricki.
- OFK Beograd have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mladost Lucani.
- Last 5 meetings: Macva 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 May 2024, ended Macva 2–0 OFK Beograd.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macva vs OFK Beograd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts OFK Beograd at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Macva vs OFK Beograd
Macva
- D2-2away to Cukaricki10 October 2026
- L1-2Mladost Lucani20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Železničar Pančevo11 September 2026
- D0-0Radnicki 19235 September 2026
- D1-1away to Novi Pazar29 August 2026
OFK Beograd
- D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026
- L3-5Radnicki 192319 September 2026
- L1-3away to Radnicki NIS13 September 2026
- D1-1IMT Novi Beograd7 September 2026
- L1-3away to FK Partizan31 August 2026
What these results say
- Macva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Macva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- OFK Beograd did not win any of these 5 matches.
- OFK Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- OFK Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Macva | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Macva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
OFK Beograd
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Macva vs OFK Beograd
- 7 May 2024Macva 2–0 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
- 13 April 2024Macva 1–1 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
- 5 November 2023OFK Beograd 2–1 MacvaPrva Liga
- 3 May 2017Macva 3–0 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
- 15 October 2016OFK Beograd 0–1 MacvaPrva Liga
Leading scorers: Macva and OFK Beograd
Macva
GoalsAssists
- M. Vidakov30
OFK Beograd
GoalsAssists
- Y. Silue60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Macva carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.22 for OFK Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Macva and 1.41 for OFK Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macva rate 0.43 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFK Beograd rate 0.55 and 1.95.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OFK Beograd the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Macva against 1.41 for OFK Beograd. Macva's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.95 for OFK Beograd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Macva at home · OFK Beograd away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Macva 11, OFK Beograd 11.
Macva score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); OFK Beograd have let in 5 there.
OFK Beograd score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Macva have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Macva
- at Zemun24 Oct · Super Ligawin 38%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda1 Nov · Super Ligawin 12%
- at FK Partizan7 Nov · Super Ligawin 18%
- vs Vojvodina21 Nov · Super Ligawin 19%
- at IMT Novi Beograd28 Nov · Super Ligawin 19%
OFK Beograd
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda24 Oct · Super Ligawin 15%
- vs Vojvodina1 Nov · Super Ligawin 24%
- at Radnik Surdulica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 30%
- vs Novi Pazar21 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%
- at Železničar Pančevo28 Nov · Super Ligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.