Radnik Surdulica
vs
Radnicki NIS
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Radnicki NIS
The model makes it 46% Radnik Surdulica, 27% draw, 27% Radnicki NIS — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Radnik Surdulica 1.60, Radnicki NIS 1.12.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Radnik Surdulica are 7th on 14 points from 11 games; Radnicki NIS are 13th on 8 points from 10 games — Super Liga.
- Radnik Surdulica are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to IMT Novi Beograd.
- Radnicki NIS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Vojvodina.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Radnik Surdulica 2–2 Radnicki NIS.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnik Surdulica at 46% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS
Radnik Surdulica
- L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026
- D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
- D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
- W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
Radnicki NIS
- L1-4Vojvodina11 October 2026
- L0-3away to FK Crvena Zvezda20 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mladost Lucani5 September 2026
- D1-1Radnicki 192329 August 2026
What these results say
- Radnik Surdulica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Surdulica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnicki NIS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radnicki NIS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Radnik Surdulica
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
Radnicki NIS
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS
- 8 March 2026Radnik Surdulica 2–2 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 3 October 2025Radnicki NIS 4–2 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 21 April 2024Radnicki NIS 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 3 March 2024Radnicki NIS 0–3 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 22 September 2023Radnik Surdulica 0–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
- 27 April 2023Radnik Surdulica 1–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS
Radnik Surdulica
GoalsAssists
- V. Bogdanović50
Radnicki NIS
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radnik Surdulica carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.16 for Radnicki NIS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Radnik Surdulica and 1.12 for Radnicki NIS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnik Surdulica rate 0.54 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnicki NIS rate 0.47 and 1.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnik Surdulica the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Radnik Surdulica against 1.12 for Radnicki NIS. Radnik Surdulica's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.86 for Radnicki NIS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radnik Surdulica at home · Radnicki NIS away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Radnik Surdulica 11, Radnicki NIS 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Radnik Surdulica
- at Radnicki 192324 Oct · Super Ligawin 26%
- at Mladost Lucani1 Nov · Super Ligawin 35%
- vs OFK Beograd7 Nov · Super Ligawin 44%
- at FK Crvena Zvezda21 Nov · Super Ligawin 10%
- vs Vojvodina28 Nov · Super Ligawin 25%
Radnicki NIS
- vs Novi Pazar24 Oct · Super Ligawin 38%
- vs Železničar Pančevo1 Nov · Super Ligawin 27%
- at Cukaricki7 Nov · Super Ligawin 29%
- vs Zemun21 Nov · Super Ligawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.