Novi Pazar
vs
IMT Novi Beograd
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Novi Pazar 0–1 IMT Novi Beograd
The model makes it 31% Novi Pazar, 32% draw, 37% IMT Novi Beograd — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Novi Pazar 0.96, IMT Novi Beograd 1.08.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to IMT Novi Beograd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Novi Pazar are 8th on 13 points from 11 games; IMT Novi Beograd are 3rd on 18 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Novi Pazar are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FK Partizan.
- IMT Novi Beograd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Radnik Surdulica.
- Last 6 meetings: Novi Pazar 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 December 2025, ended IMT Novi Beograd 2–3 Novi Pazar.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd
Novi Pazar
- L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026
- D2-2Zemun19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cukaricki12 September 2026
- W2-0Železničar Pančevo4 September 2026
- D1-1Macva29 August 2026
IMT Novi Beograd
- W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vojvodina19 September 2026
- L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda13 September 2026
- D1-1away to OFK Beograd7 September 2026
- W2-0Mladost Lucani30 August 2026
What these results say
- Novi Pazar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
- IMT Novi Beograd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Novi Pazar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
IMT Novi Beograd
Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs IMT Novi Beograd
- 7 December 2025IMT Novi Beograd 2–3 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 4 August 2025Novi Pazar 1–2 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 28 March 2025IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 3 November 2024Novi Pazar 3–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 7 May 2024IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 10 December 2023IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Novi Pazar and IMT Novi Beograd
Novi Pazar
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
IMT Novi Beograd
GoalsAssists
- C. Keita22
- T. Cojic22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Novi Pazar carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.41 for IMT Novi Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Novi Pazar and 1.08 for IMT Novi Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Novi Pazar rate 0.48 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.49 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Novi Pazar against 1.08 for IMT Novi Beograd. Novi Pazar's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.25 for IMT Novi Beograd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Novi Pazar at home · IMT Novi Beograd away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Novi Pazar 11, IMT Novi Beograd 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Novi Pazar
- at Radnicki NIS24 Oct · Super Ligawin 33%
- at Radnicki 19231 Nov · Super Ligawin 25%
- vs Mladost Lucani7 Nov · Super Ligawin 43%
- at OFK Beograd21 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda28 Nov · Super Ligawin 15%
IMT Novi Beograd
- vs Železničar Pančevo24 Oct · Super Ligawin 36%
- vs Cukaricki1 Nov · Super Ligawin 49%
- at Zemun7 Nov · Super Ligawin 50%
- vs FK Partizan21 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%
- vs Macva28 Nov · Super Ligawin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.