Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Jagiellonia
The model makes it 39% Zaglebie Lubin, 29% draw, 32% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 1.34, Jagiellonia 1.15.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zaglebie Lubin are 9th on 15 points from 10 games; Jagiellonia are 10th on 12 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Zaglebie Lubin have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Cracovia Krakow.
- Jagiellonia are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Gornik Zabrze.
- Last 6 meetings: Jagiellonia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Jagiellonia 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zaglebie Lubin at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia
Zaglebie Lubin
- L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026
- L0-2Wisla Plock20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa15 September 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
Jagiellonia
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
What these results say
- Zaglebie Lubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Zaglebie Lubin.
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zaglebie Lubin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Jagiellonia
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia
- 23 May 2026Jagiellonia 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 30 November 2025Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 11 July 2025Jagiellonia 0–1 Zaglebie LubinFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2025Jagiellonia 1–3 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 20 April 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zaglebie Lubin carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.65 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.15 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.64 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.84 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zaglebie Lubin a 0.2% chance of the title and Jagiellonia 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zaglebie Lubin the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.15 for Jagiellonia. Zaglebie Lubin's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.26 for Jagiellonia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zaglebie Lubin at home · Jagiellonia away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Zaglebie LubinJagiellonia
Zaglebie Lubin are 8th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Jagiellonia are 10th after 9 (between 1st and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Zaglebie Lubin 10, Jagiellonia 9.
Zaglebie Lubin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 4 there.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Zaglebie Lubin have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Zaglebie Lubin
- at Motor Lublin23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- vs Korona Kielce31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Lech Poznan7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 16%
- vs Gornik Zabrze21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at Widzew Łódź28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 28%
Jagiellonia
- vs Anderlecht22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
- vs Wisla Plock25 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 52%
- at Lechia Gdansk28 Oct · Cupwin 36%
- at Wieczysta Kraków31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- at Levski Sofia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.