Gornik Zabrze
vs
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast Gliwice
The model makes it 53% Gornik Zabrze, 25% draw, 22% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.88, Piast Gliwice 1.00.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Gornik Zabrze: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Gornik Zabrze are top on 25 points from 10 games; Piast Gliwice are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Jagiellonia.
- Piast Gliwice have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Widzew Łódź.
- Last 6 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast Gliwice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
Gornik Zabrze
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
Piast Gliwice
- W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
- L1-2Pogon Szczecin20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 25 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gornik Zabrze
Chance to win the league · 24% today
Piast Gliwice
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
- 31 January 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 26 July 2025Piast Gliwice 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 17 May 2025Piast Gliwice 2–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 24 November 2024Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 10 February 2024Piast Gliwice 1–3 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 5 August 2023Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski41
- Peter40
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Leandro Sanca41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gornik Zabrze carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.65 for Piast Gliwice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.00 for Piast Gliwice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gornik Zabrze rate 0.89 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Piast Gliwice rate 0.85 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gornik Zabrze a 23.7% chance of the title and Piast Gliwice 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 1.00 for Piast Gliwice. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.27 for Piast Gliwice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gornik Zabrze at home · Piast Gliwice away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Gornik ZabrzePiast Gliwice
Gornik Zabrze are 1st after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Piast Gliwice are 5th after 10 (between 5th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Gornik Zabrze 10, Piast Gliwice 10.
Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Piast Gliwice have let in 3 there.
Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gornik Zabrze have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gornik Zabrze
- at Widzew Łódź23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Piast Gliwice27 Oct · Cupwin 38%
- vs Legia Warszawa31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- vs Wieczysta Kraków7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Zaglebie Lubin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
Piast Gliwice
- vs Cracovia Krakow24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 49%
- vs Gornik Zabrze27 Oct · Cupwin 34%
- at Wisla Plock31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Slask Wroclaw7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- vs Korona Kielce21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.