PEC Zwolle
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PEC Zwolle 1–2 GO Ahead Eagles
The model makes it 26% PEC Zwolle, 24% draw, 50% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.33, GO Ahead Eagles 2.06.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: GO Ahead Eagles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- PEC Zwolle are 16th on 4 points from 8 games; GO Ahead Eagles are 8th on 11 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- PEC Zwolle have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cambuur.
- GO Ahead Eagles have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Sparta Rotterdam.
- Last 6 meetings: GO Ahead Eagles 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended GO Ahead Eagles 5–0 PEC Zwolle.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GO Ahead Eagles at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
GO Ahead Eagles
- D3-3Sparta Rotterdam10 October 2026
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen20 September 2026
- D1-1Groningen12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Utrecht8 September 2026
- L2-5away to AZ Alkmaar29 August 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle did not win any of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
- GO Ahead Eagles did not win any of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle
- F. Krastevachilles tendon injury
- Y. Namliknee injury
GO Ahead Eagles
- J. Dirkseninactive
- P. Saathofknee injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PEC Zwolle
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles
- 5 April 2026GO Ahead Eagles 5–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 21 September 2025PEC Zwolle 0–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 11 May 2025PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 3 November 2024GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 11 February 2024GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 17 September 2023PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and GO Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
GO Ahead Eagles
GoalsAssists
- S. Tengstedt62
- V. Edvardsen32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
PEC Zwolle carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.72 for GO Ahead Eagles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.06 for GO Ahead Eagles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PEC Zwolle rate 0.59 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.94 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PEC Zwolle a 0% chance of the title and GO Ahead Eagles 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GO Ahead Eagles the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 2.06 for GO Ahead Eagles. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.23 for GO Ahead Eagles.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PEC Zwolle at home · GO Ahead Eagles away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PEC ZwolleGO Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle are 16th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 13th and 16th so far); GO Ahead Eagles are 8th after 8 (between 2nd and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: PEC Zwolle 8, GO Ahead Eagles 8.
GO Ahead Eagles score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); PEC Zwolle have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
PEC Zwolle
- at Utrecht24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 18%
- vs FC OSS28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 48%
- vs ADO Den Haag1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- at Willem II6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- at Telstar21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 22%
GO Ahead Eagles
- vs Telstar23 Oct · Eredivisiewin 51%
- at Cambuur31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 44%
- at Excelsior7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
- vs Fortuna Sittard22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 50%
- at PSV Eindhoven28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.