Le Mans
vs
Toulouse
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Mans 2–1 Toulouse
The model makes it 42% Le Mans, 24% draw, 34% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Le Mans 1.94, Toulouse 1.69.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Le Mans are 14th on 6 points from 6 games; Toulouse are 15th on 6 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Mans have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Paris Saint Germain.
- Toulouse are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Monaco.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Mans vs Toulouse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Mans at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Le Mans vs Toulouse
Le Mans
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
- W2-1Lorient19 September 2026
- D2-2Lens13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
Toulouse
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
What these results say
- Le Mans scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Le Mans.
- Toulouse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Le Mans vs Toulouse
Le Mans
- A. Bourabaaankle injury
Toulouse
No absences reported.
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Le Mans
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Toulouse
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Toulouse
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt41
- T. Jørgensen21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Le Mans carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.78 for Toulouse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Le Mans and 1.69 for Toulouse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Mans rate 1.00 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toulouse rate 1.00 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Le Mans a 0.1% chance of the title and Toulouse 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Mans the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Le Mans against 1.69 for Toulouse. Le Mans's attack/defence rating is 1/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.15 for Toulouse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Le Mans at home · Toulouse away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Le MansToulouse
Le Mans are 12th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Toulouse are 13th after 6 (between 12th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Mans 6, Toulouse 6.
Le Mans score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Toulouse have let in 0 there.
Toulouse score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Le Mans have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Le Mans
- at Auxerre25 Oct · Ligue 1win 37%
- at Estac Troyes31 Oct · Ligue 1win 47%
- vs Monaco8 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- at Marseille22 Nov · Ligue 1win 22%
- vs Lille28 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
Toulouse
- vs Estac Troyes24 Oct · Ligue 1win 61%
- at Marseille1 Nov · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs Strasbourg6 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
- at Lens21 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs Rennes29 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.