Estac Troyes
vs
Lens
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Estac Troyes 1–2 Lens
The model makes it 19% Estac Troyes, 23% draw, 58% Lens — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Estac Troyes 1.05, Lens 2.21.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Lens are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 6 games; Lens are 10th on 7 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Estac Troyes are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Marseille.
- Lens have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lyon.
- Last 6 meetings: Lens 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 February 2026, ended Estac Troyes 2–4 Lens.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estac Troyes vs Lens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lens at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estac Troyes vs Lens
Estac Troyes
- L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
Lens
- W2-1Lyon9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monaco18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans13 September 2026
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Estac Troyes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Estac Troyes vs Lens
Estac Troyes
- A. Ouzenadjiinjury
- I. Bourahip injury
- Y. Koneinjury
- Y. Titileg injury
Lens
- A. Simamuscle injury
- J. Chavezthigh injury
- J. Graditinjury
- M. Nawrockiknee injury
- M. Udolsuspended (red card)
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Estac Troyes
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 85% today
Lens
Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Lens
- 4 February 2026Estac Troyes 2–4 LensCoupe de France
- 28 January 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 LensLigue 1
- 9 September 2022Lens 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 14 May 2022Estac Troyes 1–3 LensLigue 1
- 5 November 2021Lens 4–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 4 February 2020Lens 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Lens
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estac Troyes carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.94 for Lens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Estac Troyes and 2.21 for Lens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estac Troyes rate 0.63 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lens rate 1.17 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Estac Troyes a 0% chance of the title and Lens 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lens the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Estac Troyes against 2.21 for Lens. Estac Troyes's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.99 for Lens.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estac Troyes at home · Lens away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Estac TroyesLens
Estac Troyes are 17th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); Lens are 7th after 6 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Estac Troyes 6, Lens 6.
Lens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Estac Troyes have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Estac Troyes
- at Toulouse24 Oct · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs Le Mans31 Oct · Ligue 1win 28%
- at Paris Saint Germain7 Nov · Ligue 1win 6%
- vs Le Havre20 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Nice28 Nov · Ligue 1win 22%
Lens
- at Club Brugge KV21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 14%
- vs Paris FC24 Oct · Ligue 1win 38%
- at Lille30 Oct · Ligue 1win 26%
- vs Como4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
- vs Marseille8 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.