11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result

Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia
Referee: Lyuboslav Lyubomirov
Full time2 – 3

Final score: CSKA 1948 2-3 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% CSKA 1948, 29% draw, 36% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Sofia at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA 19483%Draw93%CSKA Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Bruno Jordãoassist: Stefano Sensi
Hector Cuellar
28'
28'
⚽Ioannis Pittasassist: Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
34'
•Stefano Sensi
46'
🔁Ángelo Martinoout: Andrey Yordanov
🔁Mamadou Dialloout: Atanas Iliev
46'
Dragan Grivić
48'
⚽Elias Correa Franco
56'
56'
Fedor·Lapoukhov
Elias Correa Franco
63'
⚽Atanas Iliev
68'
70'
Stefano Sensi
70'
🔁Ioannis Pittasout: Cătălin Itu
71'
🔁Joel·Zwartsout: Santiago Godoy
73'
🔁Dragan Grivićout: danilo terasenko
73'
75'
Bruno Jordão
🔁Moataz Zemzemiout: Petar Vitanov
84'
86'
🔁Max Ebongout: James Eto'o
90'
⚽Bruno Jordão
🔁Elias Correa Francoout: Florian Krebs
90+1'
90+2'
🔁Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereiraout: Isaac Solet Bomawoko
90+3'
Stefano Sensi

Match stats — CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

36%Possession64%
11Shots18
8On target7
1Corners2

Line-ups

CSKA 1948 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. BozhevG
  • 6EmersonD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 4A. HoffmannD
  • 96D. GrivićD
  • 8M. ZemzemiM
  • 33H. CuellarD
  • 11G. RusevF
  • 30J. MeyerM
  • 77Elias FrancoF
  • 93M. DialloF
Substitutes
  • 7BernaM
  • 9A. IlievF
  • 70K. IlievD
  • 23F. KrebsM
  • 1P. MarinovG
  • 14K. StrinskiM
  • 71danilo terasenkoF
  • 10B. TsonevM
  • 34P. VitanovM
Coach: Ognyan Mladenov
CSKA Sofia 4-4-2
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 2PastorD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
  • 17Á. MartinoD
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 38Léo PereiraF
  • 10J. ZwartsF
  • 28I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 11M. BrahimiF
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 37B. CotterD
  • 99J. Eto'oM
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 9S. GodoyF
  • 67C. ItuM
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 94I. Solet BomawokoM
Coach: Markus Gisdol

Form going into CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

CSKA 1948

  • W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026
  • W2-1Dunav Ruse12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026
  • W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 August 2026

CSKA Sofia

  • D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
  • W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026

What these results say

  • CSKA 1948 won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CSKA 1948 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CSKA 1948 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • CSKA Sofia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4CSKA 1948117132113+822
2CSKA Sofia11830279+1827

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

  • 11 October 2026CSKA 1948 2–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 13 May 2026CSKA Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
  • 8 May 2026CSKA 1948 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 14 February 2026CSKA 1948 0–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 10 February 2026CSKA Sofia 2–0 CSKA 1948Cup
  • 24 August 2025CSKA Sofia 0–1 CSKA 1948First League

Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

  • Frédéric Maciel10

CSKA Sofia

No player in First League's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.