Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Lokomotiv Sofia, 29% draw, 28% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Line-ups
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 3K. KostovD
- 91R. BidoungaD
- 6EirôD
- 31K. StanoevM
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 7S. DelevF
- 11A. TaouiF
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 29A. AralicaF
- 22R. DaskalovD
- 5E. DostM
- 44B. KatsarovM
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 23O. OdukoD
- 17M. PapazovF
- 71N. PenevF
- 1B. MilosavljevicG
- 2Adrián CovaD
- 4A. ChindrişD
- 94brito matheusD
- 5T. PavlovM
- 22I. IvanovD
- 12E. AliD
- 29Christ LongvilleF
- 10J. IlievM
- 11R. LeijtenM
- 19junior burbanF
- 33Yoan Dzhelepov
- 17A. FaseF
- 26D. Kirashki
- 99J. LamyF
- 31D. MrankovF
- 44M. PetrovićD
- 6M. TrdanM
- 39P. UmarbayevM
- 9A. VelevF
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
- L0-2CSKA Sofia16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
- L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Botev Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
- L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had two goals or fewer.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 10 October 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 3 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 24 October 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 9 July 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 23 February 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.