Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Botev Vratsa 0-1 Spartak Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Botev Vratsa, 29% draw, 27% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Vratsa at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
Line-ups
- 94M. OrlinovG
- 3S. SanyangD
- 4I. GoranovF
- 36M. StoevD
- 25A. BuchkovD
- 7R. TsonevM
- 12I. YurukovM
- 24M. SmolenskiM
- 10J. GallegosM
- 97V. NaydenovF
- 79M. PetkovF
- 17S. MechevF
- 6A. KichukovM
- 90F. GigovF
- 9D. GenovD
- 21M. DimitrovD
- 88L. BoyanovD
- 11M. AchkovD
- 8A. StoyanovM
- 98L. VasilevG
- 23P. IlievG
- 76David ValverdeD
- 44A. GranchovD
- 5D. KrastevD
- 29Z. TindanoD
- 19S. MajorM
- 6José Ricardo Gomes SousaM
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 10J. LopesF
- 77A. IvanovF
- 90C. OkohF
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 7BuaM
- 9T. ChunchukovF
- 4B. IvanovD
- 20D. LozevD
- 72Vasco OliveiraD
- 14Daniel PavlovM
- 16Edson SilvaM
- 45J. TshitokuD
Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
Botev Vratsa
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026
- D0-0Levski Sofia13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Arda Kardzhali31 August 2026
Spartak Varna
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia13 September 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
- D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
What these results say
- Botev Vratsa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Botev Vratsa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Spartak Varna did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Spartak Varna had two goals or fewer.
- Spartak Varna conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 9 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
- 10 October 2026Botev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 2 May 2026Botev Vratsa 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 4 December 2025Botev Vratsa 2–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 1 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 1 April 2025Spartak Varna 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 13 September 2024Botev Vratsa 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.