FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: FC Juarez 1-1 Club Tijuana.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% FC Juarez, 26% draw, 43% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. JuradoG
- 33F. NevárezD
- 3J. MurilloD
- 2G. SepúlvedaD
- 26D. PiñaD
- 5D. GarcíaD
- 6MonchuM
- 183L. SilvaM
- 21RicardinhoM
- 11J. RodríguezF
- 19Ó. EstupiñánF
- 20J. AquinoM
- 201J. CarmonaM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 13Rodrigo DouradoM
- 24B. DíazG
- 7R. FulgencioM
- 14E. LópezD
- 17L. Martínez DupuyF
- 4A. MayorgaD
- 2A. RodríguezG
- 3R. FernándezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 6A. GómezD
- 16J. VegaD
- 8I. TonaM
- 17R. ÁrcigaM
- 31Y. PadillaM
- 15I. RiveroM
- 7Adonis PreciadoM
- 9MouradF
- 20Á. ZapataM
- 26A. PerezM
- 33P. OrtízD
- 188A. MagallonD
- 29S. HernándezG
- 11F. GonzálezF
- 202J. GonzálezF
- 34F. BoyaM
- 13Elias ManoelF
Form going into FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana
FC Juarez
- L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
- W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
Club Tijuana
- L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Juarez failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Juarez scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Club Tijuana failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Club Tijuana scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 4 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana
- 10 October 2026FC Juarez 1–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 11 April 2026FC Juarez 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 21 November 2025Club Tijuana 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 26 July 2025Club Tijuana 1–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 15 February 2025Club Tijuana 1–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 7 November 2024FC Juarez 1–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Club Tijuana
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán60
Club Tijuana
GoalsAssists
- G. Mora51
- Mourad40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.