Puebla vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 1-1 Leon.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Puebla, 29% draw, 32% Leon — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puebla at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Leon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 12I. MorenoD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 16A. RamírezM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 8O. MorenoM
- 9L. HernándezF
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 25H. JuradoF
- 3A. HerreraM
- 14E. ArmentaM
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 29E. MustreF
- 20J. PachucaD
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 181Irving MartínezG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomañaD
- 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
- 26S. ReyesD
- 29J. RodríguezM
- 18E. GuerraM
- 203J. LaraM
- 6F. BeltránM
- 11I. DíazM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 25P. BellónD
- 4B. ColulaD
- 16J. CortizoM
- 8J. DomínguezM
- 20R. EcheverríaD
- 23Ó. GarcíaG
- 5S. VegasD
- 33A. VillegasD
- 13D. ArcilaM
Form going into Puebla vs Leon
Puebla
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
Leon
- W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Puebla failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Leon
- 10 October 2026Puebla 1–1 LeonLiga MX
- 11 April 2026Puebla 0–1 LeonLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Leon 1–2 PueblaLiga MX
- 12 April 2025Leon 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 17 July 2024Puebla 2–2 LeonLiga MX
- 17 March 2024Leon 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Leon
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Leon
GoalsAssists
- D. Arcila40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.