Inter vs Parma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Inter 3-0 Parma.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Inter, 21% draw, 12% Parma — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 67% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter vs Parma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 28B. PavardD
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 30Carlos AugustoD
- 17A. DioufM
- 8P. SučićM
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 32F. DimarcoM
- 9M. ThuramF
- 94F. EspositoF
- 23N. BarellaM
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 14A. BonnyF
- 46L. BovioD
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 11Luis HenriqueF
- 10Lautaro MartínezF
- 49I. ProvedelG
- 40E. CorviG
- 37M. TroiloD
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 29F. CarboniD
- 15E. Del PratoM
- 16M. KeitaM
- 4V. SierroM
- 14E. ValeriM
- 80G. FabbianM
- 19E. TouréM
- 23N. ElphegeF
- 27S. BritschgiD
- 8B. CremaschiM
- 30G. DaffaraG
- 7Ousmane DialloF
- 72D. DrobnicD
- 20M. FriganF
- 22S. GhidottiG
- 47Abdou KonateM
- 76S. LontaniF
Form going into Inter vs Parma
Inter
- D2-2away to AS Roma19 September 2026
- W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
Parma
- W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Inter scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Inter won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Parma conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Parma failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Parma scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 16 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Parma
- 10 October 2026Inter 3–0 ParmaSerie A
- 3 May 2026Inter 2–0 ParmaSerie A
- 7 January 2026Parma 0–2 InterSerie A
- 5 April 2025Parma 2–2 InterSerie A
- 6 December 2024Inter 3–1 ParmaSerie A
- 10 January 2023Inter 2–1 ParmaCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Inter and Parma
Inter
GoalsAssists
- Lautaro Martínez40
- M. Thuram32
- H. Çalhanoğlu30
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.