Genoa vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Genoa, 28% draw, 42% Fiorentina — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fiorentina at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genoa vs Fiorentina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BijlowG
- 34S. OtoaD
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 22J. VásquezD
- 3K. EhizibueM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 25H. TraorèM
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 16C. DramehD
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 75Gaël LafontM
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 2M. MitajD
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 21Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 20S. SabelliD
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 43David de GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 6L. RanieriD
- 21ValdeD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 30Franco MastantuonoM
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 29W. GnontoM
- 23BetoF
- 33VieryD
- 28PoteM
- 5M. PongračićD
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 25A. NjieF
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 17João MárioD
- 2DodôD
- 53O. ChristensenG
Form going into Genoa vs Fiorentina
Genoa
- L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
Fiorentina
- D1-1Napoli20 September 2026
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
What these results say
- Genoa did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Genoa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fiorentina failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fiorentina scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Fiorentina
- 10 October 2026Genoa 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 10 May 2026Fiorentina 0–0 GenoaSerie A
- 9 November 2025Genoa 2–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2 February 2025Fiorentina 2–1 GenoaSerie A
- 31 October 2024Genoa 0–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 15 April 2024Fiorentina 1–1 GenoaSerie A
Leading scorers: Genoa and Fiorentina
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić31
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Franco Mastantuono30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.