Napoli vs Frosinone Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Napoli 3-0 Frosinone.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Napoli, 29% draw, 28% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Napoli at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Napoli vs Frosinone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. MeretG
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 5B. BadiashileD
- 22G. Di LorenzoM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 37L. SpinazzolaM
- 7David NeresM
- 70N. LangM
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 14N. ContiniG
- 6B. GilmourM
- 23GiovaneF
- 20L. LuccaF
- 35Luca MarianucciD
- 8S. McTominayM
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 22L. PalmisaniG
- 20A. OyonoD
- 3G. CalvaniD
- 2G. CittadiniD
- 79G. BracagliaD
- 73P. MasiniM
- 14G. CalòM
- 7F. GhedjemisM
- 10R. SchmidM
- 17G. KvernadzeM
- 9A. RaimondoF
- 16Matteo CichellaM
- 91S. DesplanchesG
- 74Omar FayedD
- 40S. FiniF
- 30I. MonterisiD
- 12M. PisseriG
- 90E. TchatoD
- 71A. TerzićD
- 24A. ZerbinF
Form going into Napoli vs Frosinone
Napoli
- D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
Frosinone
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
What these results say
- Napoli scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Napoli failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Napoli conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Frosinone went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Frosinone scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Frosinone won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Frosinone
- 10 October 2026Napoli 3–0 FrosinoneSerie A
- 14 April 2024Napoli 2–2 FrosinoneSerie A
- 19 December 2023Napoli 0–4 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
- 19 August 2023Frosinone 1–3 NapoliSerie A
- 28 April 2019Frosinone 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 8 December 2018Napoli 4–0 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Napoli and Frosinone
Napoli
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo40
- G. Kvernadze31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.