Once Caldas vs Llaneros Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Once Caldas 1-0 Llaneros.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Once Caldas, 29% draw, 23% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Once Caldas at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Once Caldas vs Llaneros
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99J. ParraG
- 22J. CuestaD
- 2J. CardonaD
- 30D. LondoñoD
- 33J. PatiñoD
- 5J. NietoM
- 42J. QuiñónesM
- 7M. BarriosM
- 20A. RoaM
- 9Pipe GómezM
- 14J. ZapataF
- 12J. CamargoG
- 36Rafael Andres Acuña GonzalezM
- 31Jorman BeltranM
- 16J. CastañoD
- 19T. GarcíaM
- 21H. GuzmanF
- 18J. RiquettD
- 29E. TorresF
- 28M. ZuletaM
- 22R. RomañaG
- 20B. ChuriD
- 2H. MenaD
- 21F. MezaD
- 94J. MedrandaD
- 13J. CastillaM
- 95J. VásquezM
- 8J. RamÃrezM
- 33K. OsorioM
- 32F. CastañedaM
- 9C. CortésF
- 70J. ContrerasF
- 12J. LoaizaG
- 17Y. MenaF
- 7L. MirandaF
- 23A. MoralezD
- 10N. OspinaF
- 6Marlon Ricardo Sierra ZamoraM
Form going into Once Caldas vs Llaneros
Once Caldas
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota4 October 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima16 September 2026
Llaneros
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
What these results say
- Once Caldas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Once Caldas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Once Caldas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Llaneros scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Llaneros failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Llaneros
- 10 October 2026Once Caldas 1–0 LlanerosPrimera A
- 30 March 2026Llaneros 1–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 19 October 2025Llaneros 2–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 27 March 2025Once Caldas 1–0 LlanerosPrimera A
Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Llaneros
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno151
- J. Zapata112
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.