Junior vs Internacional de Bogota Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Junior 2-2 Internacional de Bogota.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Junior, 24% draw, 18% Internacional de Bogota — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Junior at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Junior vs Internacional de Bogota
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. MartínezG
- 34Daniel SocarrasD
- 98J. PeñaD
- 23P. OrtízD
- 26Y. SúarezD
- 80F. ÁngelM
- 22Jesús RivasM
- 10L. MurielM
- 18K. PérezM
- 25D. CaicedoM
- 29T. GutiérrezF
- 38Andrés ShmalbachM
- 28G. CelisM
- 88B. CastrillónF
- 12J. AcostaG
- 8Y. CharáM
- 19F. FydriszewskiF
- 9G. PaivaF
- 7H. RiveraM
- 5D. RiveraM
- 1W. FariñezG
- 20J. CastroD
- 4D. RodasD
- 26A. IrazoqueD
- 13M. PerníaD
- 5L. VásquezM
- 8D. VictoriaM
- 25R. JulioM
- 11C. DájomeM
- 7F. SanguinettiM
- 9D. DuarteF
- 10F. BonéF
- 23J. CaballeroF
- 33K. CatañoG
- 19Y. GarciaF
- 22S. GiradoF
- 24R. ManjarrésM
- 32Jhon Jaider Steven Palomeque CalvoM
- 6Miguel AmayaD
- 14M. SantamariaM
Form going into Junior vs Internacional de Bogota
Junior
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
Internacional de Bogota
- D1-1Once Caldas4 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bucaramanga20 September 2026
- L2-3Atletico Nacional17 September 2026
What these results say
- Internacional de Bogota did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Internacional de Bogota conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Internacional de Bogota had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Junior vs Internacional de Bogota
- 10 October 2026Junior 2–2 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 29 March 2026Internacional de Bogota 0–1 JuniorPrimera A
- 13 September 2025Junior 1–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 1 April 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–1 JuniorPrimera A
- 12 October 2024Internacional de Bogota 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 30 March 2024Junior 1–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Junior and Internacional de Bogota
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel162
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti97
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.