Tigres UANL vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Tigres UANL 3-2 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Tigres UANL, 28% draw, 35% Toluca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigres UANL vs Toluca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. GuzmánG
- 15A. FrancoD
- 28JoaquimD
- 33R. GuerreroD
- 19M. LaínezD
- 8F. GorriaránM
- 5C. AraújoM
- 16D. LainezM
- 11J. BrunettaM
- 9E. GómezM
- 22G. MartínezF
- 25F. RodríguezG
- 30D. SánchezF
- 6J. VigónM
- 184I. AcevesD
- 17R. AguirreF
- 14J. GarzaD
- 77O. HerreraF
- 32V. LoroñaD
- 21R. MonrealF
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 17B. GarcíaD
- 4B. MéndezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 35É. GutiérrezM
- 11HelinhoM
- 8N. CastroM
- 9A. VegaM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 24F. ArceM
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 29J. DíazM
- 13LuanD
- 1H. GonzálezG
- 25E. LópezD
- 15P. PérezM
- 19S. SimónM
- 16F. ViñasF
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Toluca
Tigres UANL
- W1-0Puebla27 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
Toluca
- D3-3away to Cruz Azul26 September 2026
- L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
- Tigres UANL failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Toluca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Toluca conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 13 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Toluca
- 10 October 2026Tigres UANL 3–2 TolucaLiga MX
- 31 May 2026Toluca 1–1 Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
- 18 January 2026Tigres UANL 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 15 December 2025Toluca 2–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 12 December 2025Tigres UANL 1–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 27 July 2025Toluca 3–4 Tigres UANLLiga MX
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Toluca
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta64
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas50
- A. Vega42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.