Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 2-3 Dunav Ruse.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Septemvri Sofia, 28% draw, 36% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Septemvri Sofia at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
Line-ups
- 12V. IvanovG
- 8B. PenchevM
- 26V. OzornwaforD
- 4M. HristovD
- 15P. GospodinovD
- 5Y. BaurenskiM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 29F. HerardF
- 33G. IvanovM
- 19Pedro IgorF
- 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
- 14A. VutovM
- 2S. VulikićD
- 20B. TomovskiD
- 28S. StoichkovF
- 16V. MihaylovM
- 10N. IlievM
- 17N. FontaineF
- 11A. DzhamovF
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 33G. KitanovG
- 39Andre AlvesD
- 4J. CabarcasD
- 5K. AntoniouD
- 51I. BudinovD
- 14R. ApostolovM
- 10K. BoychevM
- 17N. FonkeuM
- 88D. TodorovD
- 9Álex ValiñoF
- 23Jordan Layn Saint-LouisM
- 1B. ŻelazowskiG
- 6S. YovkovD
- 44V. VidakovićM
- 19S. StefanovM
- 78Elie SouM
- 77A. SimeonovF
- 18I. KeïtaF
- 24S. GavrilovM
- 2M. DilchovskiD
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
Septemvri Sofia
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
Dunav Ruse
- D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194812 September 2026
- L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia31 August 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dunav Ruse did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Dunav Ruse conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dunav Ruse scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
- 11 October 2026Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 22 April 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Dunav RuseSecond League
- 2 October 2023Dunav Ruse 1–1 Septemvri SofiaSecond League
- 26 April 2019Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 8 April 2019Dunav Ruse 2–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 9 December 2018Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.