Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo La Coruna.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Real Sociedad, 25% draw, 26% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 49% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 15Pablo MarínD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 23A. ZakharyanF
- 27Gorka CarreraF
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 22Héctor FortD
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 14T. KuboF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 12J. OchiengF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 13Leo RománG
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 22B. EdeD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 11David MellaM
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 10PekeM
- 19Luismi CruzF
- 32B. NsongoF
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 17AngeliñoD
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 37NoéM
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 31Martín OchoaF
- 14Riki RodríguezM
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
Real Sociedad
- W3-2away to Valencia20 September 2026
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1Real Betis20 September 2026
- L0-1Sevilla16 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 11 October 2026Real Sociedad 3–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 2 February 2018Real Sociedad 5–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 10 September 2017Deportivo La Coruna 2–4 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 23 April 2017Real Sociedad 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 5 December 2016Deportivo La Coruna 5–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 16 January 2016Real Sociedad 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić30
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.