Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Moreirense, 30% draw, 36% GIL Vicente — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts GIL Vicente at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 79L. VonićF
- 12Francisco Barbosa SampaioG
- 11LandersonF
- 99MaranhãoF
- 1AranhaG
- 20João VelosoM
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 30LucãoG
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
- 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 45David MoreiraD
- 12A. LausenM
- 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
- 77MuriloM
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
- 23Héctor HernándezF
- 3EspigaresD
- 11Joelson FernandesF
- 32M. FernándezM
- 19GuilhermeM
- 99M. KabaF
- 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
- 27A. MoreiraF
- 94SamuelG
- 2José SilvaD
Form going into Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
Moreirense
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
GIL Vicente
- D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
What these results say
- Moreirense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Moreirense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Moreirense scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- GIL Vicente did not win any of these 4 matches.
- GIL Vicente conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
- 9 October 2026Moreirense 0–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 25 July 2026GIL Vicente 2–2 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
- 7 February 2026Moreirense 1–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 29 August 2025GIL Vicente 2–0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2025GIL Vicente 0–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 12 January 2025GIL Vicente 1–0 MoreirenseTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Moreirense and GIL Vicente
Moreirense
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.