SC Braga vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: SC Braga 1-3 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% SC Braga, 26% draw, 42% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Braga vs Sporting CP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 22Sergio BarciaD
- 6Vitor CarvalhoD
- 44A. BajramiD
- 2Víctor GómezM
- 29J. GorbyM
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 11Gabriel SilvaM
- 23D. HuseinbašićM
- 21Ricardo HortaM
- 10Pau VictorF
- 26B. Arrey-MbiD
- 78João CarvalhoG
- 14G. LagerbielkeD
- 16Tomás MarquésM
- 7Diogo TravassosD
- 77Gabri MartínezF
- 17J. MiloševićF
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 19J. WindF
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 4S. AndersenM
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 8João SimõesM
- 28J. DerryF
- 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
- 20M. AraújoM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 58Flávio GonçalvesF
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 55Ibrahima BaD
- 21Pedro LimaM
Form going into SC Braga vs Sporting CP
SC Braga
- D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
Sporting CP
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
What these results say
- SC Braga scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Sporting CP
- 9 October 2026SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 7 March 2026SC Braga 2–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 5 October 2025Sporting CP 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 7 April 2025Sporting CP 1–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
- 10 November 2024SC Braga 2–4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 11 February 2024Sporting CP 5–0 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Sporting CP
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor31
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez71
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.