9 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Referee: Christian Dingert, Germany
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% Borussia Dortmund, 19% draw, 11% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Borussia Dortmund at 70% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Borussia Dortmund98%Draw2%Werder Bremen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
🔁Amos Pieperout: Oskar Wójcik
🔁Ethan Nwaneriout: Fábio Silva
63'
65'
🔁Arthur Augusto De Matos Soaresout: Mitchell Weiser
65'
🔁Youri Regeerout: Dariusz Stalmach
🔁Marcel Sabitzerout: Konstantinos Karetsas
72'
🔁Jobe Bellinghamout: Joey Veerman
72'
⚽Daniel Svenssonassist: Fábio Silva
80'
81'
🔁Iván San José Cantalejoout: Paul Erevbenagie
81'
🔁Eren Dinkciout: Mick Schmetgens
⚽Nico Schlotterbeckassist: Joey Veerman
85'
88'
⚽Ludovit Reisassist: Oskar Wójcik
90'
Dariusz Stalmach
Joey Veerman
90+2'
90+2'
⚽Niclas Füllkrugassist: Marco Grüll
Felix Nmecha
90+4'
90+8'
Daniel Thioune

Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

72%Possession28%
21Shots11
10On target4
9Corners3
2.39xG1.37

Goals against chances

Borussia Dortmund2 from 2.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Werder Bremen2 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 4N. SchlotterbeckD
  • 20M. SabitzerM
  • 7J. BellinghamM
  • 8F. NmechaM
  • 24D. SvenssonM
  • 18E. NwaneriM
  • 14M. BeierM
  • 9S. GuirassyF
Substitutes
  • 5R. BensebaïniD
  • 40S. InacioF
  • 19K. KaretsasM
  • 41M. AlbertF
  • 33A. MeyerG
  • 36Kauã PratesD
  • 49L. ReggianiD
  • 21Fábio SilvaF
  • 25J. VeermanM
Coach: N. Kovač
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 13ArthurD
  • 5A. PieperD
  • 32M. FriedlD
  • 2O. DemanD
  • 15L. ReisM
  • 44Y. RegeerM
  • 18E. DinkçiM
  • 20Chuky San JoséM
  • 17M. GrüllM
  • 10N. FüllkrugF
Substitutes
  • 38P. ErevbenagieF
  • 26C. IttenF
  • 30A. SchlagerG
  • 33Mick SchmetgensD
  • 23Dariusz StalmachM
  • 4N. StarkD
  • 8M. WeiserD
  • 3O. WójcikD
  • 34K. SoyluM
Coach: D. Thioune

Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund

  • W1-0away to VfB Stuttgart19 September 2026
  • W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
  • W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
  • W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026

Werder Bremen

  • W3-2FC Augsburg19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
  • W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
  • L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Borussia Dortmund won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Dortmund scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Werder Bremen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Werder Bremen.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Borussia Dortmund5410114+713
7Werder Bremen5221101008

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

  • 9 October 2026Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 16 May 2026Werder Bremen 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 13 January 2026Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 25 January 2025Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
  • 31 August 2024Werder Bremen 0–0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 9 March 2024Werder Bremen 1–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga

The full Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen record →

Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen

Borussia Dortmund

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Werder Bremen

GoalsAssists

  • N. Füllkrug40
  • M. Grüll24

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.