Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Grazer AK 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Grazer AK, 24% draw, 56% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 56% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23C. StankovićG
- 82B. OwusuD
- 21M. SollbauerD
- 27Y. OberleitnerD
- 28AndersonM
- 34P. MichorlM
- 24C. CvetkoM
- 32L. KlassenM
- 14J. ItalianoM
- 10C. LichtenbergerM
- 25A. HofleitnerF
- 11M. GroßeF
- 8T. KochM
- 9D. MadernerF
- 17S. MandeyM
- 1J. MeierhoferG
- 7A. SmitsF
- 37T. TrummerM
- 3L. Vraa-JensenD
- 72Petar MarkovicD
- 1C. FrüchtlG
- 22S. LainerD
- 44K. BomaD
- 21T. DrexlerD
- 31D. SchmidD
- 32A. BarryM
- 13F. KrätzigM
- 35J. LindstrømM
- 8S. KitanoM
- 11Y. VertessenM
- 19K. KonatéF
- 41Nikola ŠarčevićG
- 47Valentin ZabranskyD
- 7U. TohumcuM
- 30G. DiakitéF
- 33A. CamaraM
- 20E. BaidooF
- 9H. TabakovićF
- 15B. MazurekM
Form going into Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Grazer AK
- D2-2Austria Vienna19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ried21 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
- W3-0Sturm Graz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
What these results say
- Grazer AK failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Grazer AK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 10 October 2026Grazer AK 0–0 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 15 February 2026Grazer AK 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 9 August 2025Red Bull Salzburg 5–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 2 November 2024Red Bull Salzburg 0–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 2 August 2024Grazer AK 2–3 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 4 February 2023Red Bull Salzburg 3–4 Grazer AKFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner30
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- K. Konaté40
- H. Tabaković30
- Y. Vertessen21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.