Bolton vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 1-2 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Bolton, 27% draw, 33% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bolton at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Stoke City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 7K. DongM
- 20Ruben RodriguesM
- 11T. GaleM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 26J. NelsonF
- 4X. SimonsM
- 9T. BairF
- 1J. BonhamG
- 5L. BruntD
- 14A. FamewoD
- 39R. HardieF
- 16S. Iling-JuniorF
- 17A. ItoM
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 13J. DevennyF
- 11L. CisséF
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 15G. HirstF
- 18B. LawalD
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 22J. TchamadeuD
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
Form going into Bolton vs Stoke City
Bolton
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
Stoke City
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Stoke City
- 10 October 2026Bolton 1–2 Stoke CityChampionship
- 30 July 2024Bolton 0–1 Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
- 29 December 2018Bolton 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 2 October 2018Stoke City 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 13 May 2012Stoke City 2–2 BoltonPremier League
- 6 November 2011Bolton 5–0 Stoke CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Bolton and Stoke City
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- E. Galbraith32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.