Derby vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 1-1 Wrexham.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Derby, 28% draw, 32% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs Wrexham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31J. VickersG
- 23J. WardD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 20A. MowattM
- 4D. OzohM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 19H. MeisterF
- 24R. NyambeD
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 27L. TravisM
- 22A. PattersonG
- 26Z. VynerD
- 5D. HyamD
- 6J. WorrallD
- 12I. KaboréM
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 27L. O'BrienM
- 3J. EkomiéM
- 10J. WindassM
- 17C. O'HareM
- 19K. MooreF
- 28S. SmithF
- 21D. WardG
- 20O. RathboneM
- 47R. LongmanM
- 34A. JamesD
- 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
- 15G. DobsonM
- 11B. CadamarteriF
- 50Samuel ChesworthF
Form going into Derby vs Wrexham
Derby
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
Wrexham
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Wrexham
- 10 October 2026Derby 1–1 WrexhamChampionship
- 4 January 2026Derby 1–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 27 September 2025Wrexham 1–1 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Wrexham
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.