Blackburn vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 2-1 Cardiff.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Blackburn, 29% draw, 28% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Blackburn at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs Cardiff
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22B. TóthG
- 2R. AlebiosuD
- 17H. CarterD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 3H. PickeringD
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 25R. MorishitaM
- 10T. CantwellM
- 21O. AfolayanM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 24M. BaradjiM
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 14D. De NeveM
- 11J. FevrierF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 7A. KargboF
- 1A. PearsG
- 39H. PatesD
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 4G. OshoD
- 48D. LawlorD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 11O. TannerM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 47C. RobinsonF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 30H. TyrerG
- 16C. WillockM
- 2W. FishD
- 39I. DaviesF
- 50Charlie HoltM
Form going into Blackburn vs Cardiff
Blackburn
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
Cardiff
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Cardiff
- 10 October 2026Blackburn 2–1 CardiffChampionship
- 15 March 2025Blackburn 1–2 CardiffChampionship
- 9 November 2024Cardiff 1–3 BlackburnChampionship
- 20 February 2024Cardiff 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 21 October 2023Blackburn 1–0 CardiffChampionship
- 27 September 2023Blackburn 5–2 CardiffLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Cardiff
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- O. Afolayan42
- A. Guðjohnsen41
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.