Middlesbrough vs Wolves Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 1-0 Wolves.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Middlesbrough, 28% draw, 30% Wolves — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs Wolves
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 9T. ConwayM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 12L. AylingD
- 18C. BarronM
- 31S. BrynnG
- 3S. ByramD
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 22K. JosephF
- 1José SáG
- 2K. TrippierD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 24Toti GomesD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 20T. DoyleM
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 21Rodrigo GomesM
- 7AndréM
- 36M. ManeM
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 8J. JamesM
- 33G. KonanD
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 28Fer LópezM
- 14S. NeaveF
- 19R. SaïdF
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 27J. BellegardeM
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Wolves
Middlesbrough
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
Wolves
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Wolves
- 10 October 2026Middlesbrough 1–0 WolvesChampionship
- 30 March 2018Middlesbrough 1–2 WolvesChampionship
- 5 August 2017Wolves 1–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 4 March 2016Middlesbrough 2–1 WolvesChampionship
- 24 October 2015Wolves 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 22 September 2015Middlesbrough 3–0 WolvesLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Wolves
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear80
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.