Malaga vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Malaga 1-1 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Malaga, 32% draw, 38% Espanyol — fair odds of 3.33, 3.13 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Espanyol at 38% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Malaga vs Espanyol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 3PugaD
- 20Fernando CaleroD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 31RafitaD
- 14Rafa RodríguezM
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 9ChupeF
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 5Álex PastorD
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 5C. RiedelD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 10Pol LozanoM
- 24T. DolanM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 15Bryan ZaragozaM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 22Álex CalatravaM
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 18Marcos FernándezF
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 11Pere MillaM
- 14Unai NúñezD
Form going into Malaga vs Espanyol
Malaga
- L0-1away to Getafe20 September 2026
- L1-3Villarreal17 September 2026
- D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
Espanyol
- L1-3Elche18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rayo Vallecano15 September 2026
- W2-0away to Osasuna12 September 2026
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
What these results say
- Malaga did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Malaga conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Malaga had two goals or fewer.
- Espanyol scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Espanyol failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Malaga vs Espanyol
- 9 October 2026Malaga 1–1 EspanyolLa Liga
- 2 May 2021Espanyol 3–0 MalagaSegunda División
- 2 November 2020Malaga 0–3 EspanyolSegunda División
- 2 September 2020Espanyol 3–0 MalagaFriendlies Clubs
- 13 May 2018Espanyol 4–1 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Malaga and Espanyol
Malaga
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.