Alaves vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Alaves, 27% draw, 44% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 44% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 17JonnyD
- 7Angel PérezM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 15L. BoyéF
- 3YusiD
- 24Selu DialloM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 9M. DíazF
- 6GuevaraM
- 16V. KoskiD
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 27X. OlaizD
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 6KokeM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 11A. LookmanM
- 15J. DavidF
- 9A. SørlothF
- 18Marc PubillD
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 1J. MussoG
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 17D. HanckoD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 46J. CastilloM
Form going into Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Alaves
- D0-0away to Athletic Club19 September 2026
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
Atletico Madrid
- W2-1Real Madrid20 September 2026
- W4-0Osasuna16 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
What these results say
- Alaves failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alaves conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
- Atletico Madrid won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
- 10 October 2026Alaves 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 18 January 2026Atletico Madrid 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 30 August 2025Alaves 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 3 May 2025Alaves 0–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 23 November 2024Atletico Madrid 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 21 April 2024Alaves 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Alaves and Atletico Madrid
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz33
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena42
- J. David32
- Álex Grimaldo31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.