AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: AD Ceuta FC 1-2 Sabadell.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% AD Ceuta FC, 30% draw, 41% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabadell at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Guille VallejoG
- 4Albert CaparrósD
- 6Carlos HernándezD
- 34D. MasD
- 3José MatosD
- 8KukiM
- 15JoaquínM
- 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
- 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezF
- 9Jordi EscobarF
- 19E. SevikyanF
- 14Y. BodigerM
- 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
- 10Marino IllescasM
- 5Adrián LapeñaD
- 1Pedro LópezG
- 20Álex MeléndezM
- 17Mawuli MensahM
- 18Alex PetxarromanD
- 29O. SadikF
- 1Diego FuoliG
- 14Óscar SanzD
- 5Arthur BonaldoD
- 6Edgar GonzálezD
- 4Miki CodinaD
- 7Ton RipollM
- 20UrriM
- 21Alain RibeiroM
- 22Q. LiameedM
- 23J. PriegoF
- 10Ángel BaenaF
- 25Marc VidalG
- 12Gastón VallesF
- 33Joaquim Utgés AlmedaF
- 19Y. RahmaniF
- 8Pere PonsM
- 13J. OrtegaG
- 9N. ObolskiyF
- 27José Luis CatalàD
- 24Eneko AguilarM
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
AD Ceuta FC
- D1-1away to Castellón4 October 2026
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
Sabadell
- D0-0FC Andorra4 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II26 September 2026
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for AD Ceuta FC.
- Sabadell failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sabadell had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
- 10 October 2026AD Ceuta FC 1–2 SabadellSegunda División
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Sabadell
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.